The disruption in container freight rates caused a 0.4% loss in welfare in Colombia. This percentage represents a decrease in the present value of the population's consumption due to the drop in real wages and is attributable solely to the direct effects of freight rates on the goods that Colombia…
Bogotá, Colombia
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The housing sector is one of the most relevant in terms of economic and financial stability. Understanding its behavior can prevent bubbles and busts in the economy. There are many studies about the corporate bond’s spreads, but the studies about mortgage…
- Publicación |Este documento evalúa el Proyecto de Acto Legislativo aprobado en su sexto debate, el cual busca aumentar los recursos transferidos a las regiones a través del Sistema General de Participaciones (SGP). Desde una perspectiva histórica, el sistema de transferencias a los territorios se fortaleció con…
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The global economy proved resilient during the period analyzed, although signs of a slowdown emerged towards the end of the quarter.
- Publicación |Transparency is often emphasized as a key element for central bank independence and the effectiveness of monetary policy. Between 2018 and 2019, the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la República) undertook a significant overhaul of its monetary decision-making process, which led to significant…
- Publicación |This paper evaluates seven output gap models for real-time estimates, based on three criteria: stability of estimations on new observations, data revisions and/or methodological changes; inflation forecasting accuracy; and potential output response to structural economic shocks.
- Publicación |Most macroeconomic labor literature on estimating matching functions does not consider spatial spillover effects. However, job search and vacancy-filling processes often involve neighboring locations, as local workers can search for and fill vacancies in nearby labor markets.
- Publicación |This study examines the determinants of sovereign risk, focusing on the impact of geopolitical risk in emerging market economies (EMEs) sovereign risk metrics. Using local projection techniques, we evaluate the effects of geopolitical risk on credit default swaps (CDS) and EMBI indices in EMEs,…
- Publicación |This paper analyzes whether the policy of VAT exemption days, implemented in Colombia between 2020 and 2022 for some products and merchandise lines, had a positive effect on the consumption of such exempted goods.
- Publicación |1. First vulnerability: Sudden changes in global financial conditions
As of September 2024, the likelihood of a reduction in the U.S. Federal Reserve policy rate has increased, raising the possibility that external financial conditions may loosen by the end of 2024.
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Monetary policy plays a fundamental role in the pursuit of economic stability and its effectiveness is closely linked to its credibility. In the context of monetary policy, credibility refers to the degree of confidence that economic agents have that the central bank will achieve its objectives…
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Foreign investors made significant sales of their holdings of local public debt securities during 2023. Specifically, they sold COP 9.1 t in peso-denominated TES and COP 2.4 t in UVR-denominated TES respectively. This represented a 11.7% decrease in their balance in pesos…
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In this paper, we study the coexistence of cash and electronic payments introducing some distortions in the payments markets to understand the widespread use of cash, specially in emerging countries. Following Lagos and Wright (2005) we model explicitly some frictions in…
- Publicación |International Macroeconomic EnvironmentIMF measurements indicate that global gross domestic product (GDP) growth was reduced from 3.5% in 2022 to 3.1% in 2023, and according to World Bank estimates, from 3.3% to 3.0%.
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After facing the adverse effects brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2021 and 2022 the Colombian economy grew at a remarkable pace, reflected in a widening of the current account deficit to levels close to its historical maximums (-5.6% and -6.1% of GDP, respectively). In…
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During the second quarter, headline inflation remained stable, while core inflation continued to fall. Inflation would continue its measured downward path to meet its 3.0% target by the end of 2025.
- Publicación |Financial Infrastructure in ColombiaPayment Infrastructure in Financial MarketsIn 2023, Banco de la República’s (the Central Bank of Colombia) large-value payment system (Deposit Accounts System or CUD in Spanish) showed greater dynamism.
- Publicación |In Colombia, 50% of labor income is lower than the legal MW level. It is in this context that we analyze the effect of increasing MW on labor income distribution and its inequality, household income distribution and its inequality, and on monetary poverty prevalence.
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The increasing digitization of fnancial services has increased the system’s exposure to cyber-attacks. This could compromise the security of the information, its operability and, therefore, its stability. The materialization of a cyber-risk event that affects the payment system could disrupt the…
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During 2022, Colombian companies that resorted to international fnancing sources faced interest rate increases and a sharp depreciation of the peso against the dollar (21%). This may have important implications for the balance sheets of real sector companies with a negative exchange rate…
