Este recuadro analiza cómo un aumento importante del salario mínimo puede afectar la inflación. El ejercicio considera un escenario en el cual dicho incremento se ubica por encima de la inflación pasada y del crecimiento de la productividad laboral en 17,2 puntos porcentuales (pp), magnitud…
Bogotá, Colombia
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Real retail sales grew in the region and surpassed the national average, although they slowed down. Higher income, the appreciation of the Colombian peso, and improved credit conditions boosted the consumption of durable goods. Sales of food and beverages led this positive performance, followed…
- Publicación |Through two empirical applications using economic data from the United States and Colombia, we illustrate the effectiveness of our methodology, providing not only accurate point estimates for the dating of turning points, but also enabling us to construct confidence intervals around these estimates.
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Presentation made at the Banco de la República on March 18, 2026
- Publicación |Without an equitable redistribution of unpaid care work, it will not be possible to close gender gaps in Colombia.
- Publicación |Approach
This document presents, from both a conceptual and applied perspective, the framework of the System of National Accounts (SNA) as the reference for analyzing a country's economic structure, evolution, and performance. It sets out the integrated logic of the system, in…
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Banco de la República, the Central Bank of Colombia, continuously reviews and updates the tools used for macroeconomic forecasting and monetary policy analysis. These tools include macroeconomic models, which enable the collective analysis of inflation and economic growth dynamics in the medium…
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This Box quantifies the potential effects of a real increase in the minimum wage on a set of macroeconomic variables when the increment exceeds the sum of inflation and labor productivity growth by 17.2 percentage points (pp), as the one established for 2026. The analysis is conducted by…
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In 2025, inflation stopped declining and remained above the 3% target. It is expected to rise to 6.3% in 2026 and then fall to 3.7% by December 2027, within a context of excess demand, solid economic growth, high employment levels, and increased labor costs in 2026.
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Inflation expectations are a key factor in monetary policy decision-making. First, as crucial inputs for wage and price setting, they offer an estimation of the future direction of inflation. Second, they allow assessing the credibility of the inflation target set by the central bank (Sousa…
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The government bonds market in Colombia incorporates relevant information for the analysis of expectations regarding inflation, MPR, and economic growth. Therefore, the dynamics of these interest rates are an essential input for monetary policy decisions.
- Publicación |Main Characteristics of Banco de la República’s Reserves Management PolicyReserves are invested in financial assets with high levels of safety and liquidity, characterized by a large secondary market.The percentage of reserves that remains available to cover immediate liquidity needs, known as…
- Publicación |Increases in current income generate marginal propensities to consume that are about 25% higher than those associated with income declines, while reductions in interest rates induce long‑run responses nearly 188% larger than increases. These patterns are consistent with the presence of liquidity…
- Publicación |Labor informality, through its interaction with wage rigidities, productivity differences, and household financial constraints, acts as a powerful amplifier of macroeconomic volatility in consumption and investment, despite its traditional role as an employment stabilizer in emerging economies.
- Publicación |Demographic change represents not only a challenge but also an opportunity to rethink the financing structure and target investment toward key areas such as expanding early‑childhood and upper‑secondary education coverage, enhancing equity, strengthening teacher training, improving the student‑…
- Publicación |Reducing the discrimination-based pay gap by 50% is associated with a potential 8% increase in Colombia's GDP in the long run. These results depend on the substitutability between men and women in the labor market and can be smaller if closing the pay gap implies a policy effort that must be…
- Publicación |An unexpected increase in the monetary policy rate generates a “Jcurve” pattern in the trade balance: in the short run, exports fall more than imports (the trade balance deteriorates), and in the medium term, imports fall more than exports (the trade balance improves).
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This Special Financial Stability Report updates and expands the analysis of the performance of the loan portfolio and credit risk of credit institutions presented in the…
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The presence of Colombian banks in Central America has been significant in recent decades. Exposure to the regions where Colombian banks operate can be classified as direct or indirect. Direct exposure refers to the relationship that Colombian banks keep with their subsidiaries…
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The presence of Colombian banks in Central America has been significant in recent decades. Exposure to the regions where Colombian banks operate can be classified as direct or indirect. Direct exposure refers to the relationship that Colombian banks keep with their subsidiaries, whose results…
