Bogotá, Colombia

Automatic price adjustment mechanisms, known as indexing, have mainly been a relatively common practice in developing economies even under different macroeconomic environments. These mechanisms often arise spontaneously in agents’ private contracts as a tool to protect themselves from high and…

In recent years, Colombia economy has seen a growing trend in the digitalization of payments (perhaps partly as a consequence of the pandemic). This is evident in the increased use of electronic channels.

Banco de la República (Banrep) and DANE jointly disclosed the esults of the Quarterly National Accounts of Institutional Sectors (CNTSI in Spanish) as of June 2021. This work is the result of a joint effort made by the two entities seeking to generate statistics that meet international quality…

The U.S. financial system experienced a period of stress during March 2023 in which several regional banks including First Republic Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and Silvergate Bank, etc., were affected. The collapse of these institutions had multiple causes and exposed the…

Global inflationary pressures remain high, although showing a downward trend, while economic activity demonstrated greater resilience than expected.

Recent analyses in the U.S. suggest that the cycle of increases in its benchmark interest rate was accompanied by the inversion of its yield curve and an increase in the probability of recession. The yield curve is understood to be inverted when long-term (10-year) bond rates…

This Box summarizes the main findings on central banks’ experience with asset purchases in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, emphasizing the Colombian case.

We show that capital controls (CC), by slowing-down firm debt-growth in the boom, improve firm performance during crises. Exploiting a tax on foreign-currency (FX) debt inflows in  Colombia before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and multiple firm-level and loan-level…

Developing countries have a vast informal sector generally associated with low productivity levels. The response of informal employment to tax policies might depend on labor market  rigidities. This paper proposes a theoretical framework consisting of a search and…

We examine the extent in which the ratios of book-to-market and earnings-to-price predict excess asset returns in an emerging market economy like Colombia. We want to find the magnitude in which these ratios help to forecast excess returns and if there is any evidence …

This paper analyses the behavior of household consumption in Colombia during Covid-19 post pandemic. Initially, it introduces a regional comparison emphasizing in the severity of lockdown and the government fiscal responses. Then, it describes the dynamics of the main consumption…

Inflation would peak in March and start to gradually decline as of the second quarter of 2023, bringing inflation back to the 3% target over the next two years.

We use Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, a deep learning technique, to forecast Colombian headline inflation one year ahead through two approaches. The first one uses only information from the target variable, while the second one incorporates additional information from…

The incomplete pass-through of exchange rates to prices is a well-documented phenomenon. Firms respond optimally to exchange rate shocks by adjusting margins and buying inputs from regions with more advantageous terms of trade. Consumers, in turn, substitute goods that become more…

In December, headline inflation (13.1%) and the average of the core inflation measures (10.3%) continued to trend upward, posting higher rates than those estimated by the Central Bank's technical staff and surpassing the market average. Inflation expectations for…