Forecasting Process Management and Assessment Section

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    In March, inflation decreased - although less than anticipated - and remains above the 3% target. Over the next two years, it is expected that inflation will continue to decline, converging gradually toward the target.

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    Inflation has fallen significantly, from 9.3% in 2023 to 5.2% in 2024. During this year and into the next, inflation would continue to decline towards the inflation target.

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    In the third quarter, headline inflation continued to decrease and is expected to continue doing so gradually to reach 3.0% by the end of 2025.

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    During the second quarter, headline inflation remained stable, while core inflation continued to fall. Inflation would continue its measured downward path to meet its 3.0% target by the end of 2025.

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    Annual inflation has been decreasing for a year and is projected to continue, with inflation at 5.5% in December and the 3% target to be reached in 2025.

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    Inflation continues to decline but remains well above 3%. It is anticipated to decrease significantly in 2024 and draw closer to the established target in the first half of 2025.

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    Inflation has decreased since April, and it is projected to continue to reduce significantly throughout 2024 as it converges toward 3%.

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    As foreseen in the April Report, inflation began to fall in the second quarter of 2023. It is expected to continue declining in the following quarters and return near the 3% target by the end of 2024.

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    Inflation would peak in March and start to gradually decline as of the second quarter of 2023, bringing inflation back to the 3% target over the next two years.

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    1. Macroeconomic Summary

    In December, headline inflation (13.1%) and the average of the core inflation measures (10.3%) continued to trend upward, posting higher rates than those estimated by the Central Bank's technical staff and surpassing the market average. Inflation expectations for…

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    1.1 Macroeconomic summary

    In September, headline inflation (11.4% annually) and the average of core inflation indicators (8.6% annually) continued on a rising trend, and higher increases than expected were recorded. Forecasts increased again, and inflation expectations remained above 3…

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    1.    Summary1.1.    Macroeconomic summary

    In the second quarter, annual inflation (9.67%), the technical staff’s projections and its expectations continued to increase, remaining above the target. International cost shocks, accentuated by Russia's…

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     1.1 Macroeconomic summary

    Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets…