Office of the Deputy Technical Governor

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    1. First vulnerability: Sudden changes in global financial conditions

    As of September 2024, the likelihood of a reduction in the U.S. Federal Reserve policy rate has increased, raising the possibility that external financial conditions may loosen by the end of 2024.

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    During the second quarter, headline inflation remained stable, while core inflation continued to fall. Inflation would continue its measured downward path to meet its 3.0% target by the end of 2025.

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    I. Performance of Credit Institutions (CIs) 

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    Annual inflation has been decreasing for a year and is projected to continue, with inflation at 5.5% in December and the 3% target to be reached in 2025.

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    Inflation continues to decline but remains well above 3%. It is anticipated to decrease significantly in 2024 and draw closer to the established target in the first half of 2025.

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    I. Desempeño de los establecimientos de crédito

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    The analysis presented in this edition of the Report allows concluding that the Colombian financial system has ample liquidity and solvency levels which are sufficient to confront the occurrence of extreme and tail risk events.

    I. Performance of Credit Institutions

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    Inflation has decreased since April, and it is projected to continue to reduce significantly throughout 2024 as it converges toward 3%.

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    The purpose of the Financial Stability Report is to present Banco de la República (the Central Bank of Colombia)'s assessment of the recent performance of credit institutions and their borrowers, as well as the main risks and vulnerabilities that could affect the financial stability of the…

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    Introduction

    Banco de la República’s main goal is to preserve the purchasing power of the currency in coordination with the general economic policy that is intended to stabilize output and employment at long-term sustainable levels.

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    As foreseen in the April Report, inflation began to fall in the second quarter of 2023. It is expected to continue declining in the following quarters and return near the 3% target by the end of 2024.

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    Inflation would peak in March and start to gradually decline as of the second quarter of 2023, bringing inflation back to the 3% target over the next two years.

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    1. Macroeconomic Summary

    In December, headline inflation (13.1%) and the average of the core inflation measures (10.3%) continued to trend upward, posting higher rates than those estimated by the Central Bank's technical staff and surpassing the market average. Inflation expectations…

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    1.1 Macroeconomic summary

    In September, headline inflation (11.4% annually) and the average of core inflation indicators (8.6% annually) continued on a rising trend, and higher increases than expected were recorded. Forecasts increased again, and inflation expectations remained above 3…

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    Banco de la República’s main objective is to preserve the purchasing power of the currency in coordination with the general economic policy that is intended to stabilize output and employment at long-term sustainable levels.

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    1.    Summary 1.1.    Macroeconomic summary

    In the second quarter, annual inflation (9.67%), the technical staff’s projections and its expectations continued to increase, remaining above the target. International cost shocks, accentuated by Russia…

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     1.1 Macroeconomic summary

    Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets…

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    1.1 Macroec​onomic summary

    Economic activity has recovered faster than projected, and output is now expected to return to pre-pandemic levels earlier than anticipated. Economic growth projections for 2021 and 2022 have been revised upward, though significant downward bias remains.…

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    1.1 Macroeconomic summary

    The Colombian economy sustained numerous shocks in the second quarter, pri­marily related to costs and supply. The majority of these shocks were unantic­ipated or proved more persistent than expected, interrupting the recovery in economic activity observed…