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According to Colombia’s Constitution, Banco de la República is an institution that operates independent of government.  It enjoys administrative, patrimonial and technical autonomy and is subject to its own system of rules and regulations
Abstract Colombia is particularly affected by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) weather fluctuations. In this context, this study explores how the adverse weather events linked to ENSO affect the inflation expectations in Colombia and how to incorporate these second-round effects into a…
The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors. 
The interest rate on government bonds depends on the policy interest rate set by Banco de la República for short-term, risk-free operations, on the policy rate that bond investors expect in the future, and on the risk premium they require to cover the risks of long-term operations inherent to…
This risk premium depends on several factors, one of which is the strength of the government’s finances. If investors perceive the government’s financial situation as solid, the risk premium will be lower; if, on the contrary, they perceive that the government’s debt and fiscal deficit are rising…
An inflation-targeting framework means that Banco de la República makes decisions regarding the policy interest rate to ensure that inflation approaches the target and the economy operates at a sustainable pace over time.
When inflation is high, money quickly loses its value; this means that a household can buy fewer basic goods such as food with the same amount of money. When inflation is both high and volatile, it becomes difficult to finance long-term projects, such as those required to expand companies’…
The interest rate on government bonds and their risk premium component have risen, while the policy interest rate has decreased or remained unchanged. Given this, the recent increase in the 10-year government bond interest rate is related to the risk premium for the risk of these bonds, due to the…
The policy interest rate influences financial market rates, thereby impacting the exchange rate, consumption, investment, and inflation expectations. When demand exceeds supply, the Bank raises the rate to control inflation, encourage saving, reduce credit, and stabilize the exchange rate.
The inflation target is the quantitative objective set by Banco de la República to fulfill its constitutional mandate of preserving the purchasing power of money through low and stable inflation. The Bank sets a target to keep inflation close to that level and to guide its decisions regarding the…
Colombia’s inflation target is 3.0%. It has been set at this level since 2009 and it is the same in countries such as Chile, Mexico, Brazil, Costa Rica, China, Hungary, the Philippines, and Georgia. It is also very close to the targets of Australia, Indonesia, Iceland, Malaysia, Poland, and Romania…
The inflation target is the quantitative objective set by Banco de la República to comply with the constitutional mandate of preserving the purchasing power of money through low and stable inflation. When the target is credible, it becomes an inflation anchor around which inflation expectations…
When inflation is close to the target and demand is expected to exceed potential output, in turn generating upward price pressures, Banco de la República anticipates the situation by increasing the interest rate to avoid the economy’s overheating, circumvent most inflationary pressures, and…
The policy interest rate is Banco de la República’s main monetary policy instrument. The Bank raises, lowers, or maintains it with the aim of achieving the annual inflation target, which, in Colombia, has been set at 3.0% since 2010.
It is the general framework under which monetary policy operates in Colombia. Banco de la República makes interest rate decisions with the intent of bringing inflation to the target and contributing to maintaining economic activity (the economy’s output) close to its potential level (the level of…
We study the existence and international migration of housing market bubbles, using quarterly information of twenty OECD countries for the period comprised between 1970 and 2015. We find that housing bubbles are present in all the countries included in our sample. Multiple bubbles are found in all…
Central banks generally target multiple objectives while having at least the same number of monetary instruments. However, some instruments can be inadvertently collinear, leading to indeterminacy and identification failures. Paradoxically, most empirical studies have shied away from this…
Banco de la República began to publish inflation targets with the enactment of Law 31 of 1992. Although inflation targets were not met during the first few years, they did guide annual inflation towards a downward trajectory. Since 1999, the targets have been met more consistently and, despite the…
The Board of Directors has seven members: the Minister of Finance and Public Credit, the Governor of the Central Bank, and five full-time Board Members, who exclusively represent the general interest of the Nation [See: Political Constitution, Art. 372; Law 31 of 1992, Art.28; and Decree 2520 of…
The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors. 
The balance sheet is a snapshot that portraits the financial position of a firm at a specific point of time. Under the reasonable assumption that the financial position of a firm is unique and representative, we use a basic artificial neural network pattern recognition method on Colombian banks’…
The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors. 
Is the failure of natural resource abundance to achieve better economic outcomes due to limited nancial development or scal policy short-termism? I answer this question in a precautionary savings model where both resource revenues and asset returns are uncertain. Calibrating for Colombia, I nd…