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This study examines the determinants of sovereign risk, focusing on the impact of geopolitical risk in emerging market economies (EMEs) sovereign risk metrics. Using local projection techniques, we evaluate the effects of geopolitical risk on credit default swaps (CDS) and EMBI indices in EMEs,…
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Considering the recent decline in the birth rate, the beginning of the decline in the labor force in Colombia would occur between 2043 and 2045.
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Healthcare expenditure in Colombia is expected to increase by 35% over the next eight years, due to population aging, rising costs, and domestic policies. These trends, in a context of high levels of informality and affiliation to the subsidized regime, add significant pressure to public finances.
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This paper evaluates seven output gap models for real-time estimates, based on three criteria: stability of estimations on new observations, data revisions and/or methodological changes; inflation forecasting accuracy; and potential output response to structural economic shocks.
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Transparency is often emphasized as a key element for central bank independence and the effectiveness of monetary policy. Between 2018 and 2019, the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la República) undertook a significant overhaul of its monetary decision-making process, which led to significant…
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The necessary effort to stabilize inflation is greater when credibility is low, requiring the implementation of stricter policies than usual to achieve the same inflation targets.
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Banco de la República (the Central Bank of Colombia) implemented pilot surveys and, in 2023, conducted a nationally representative survey of the adult population. This revealed important data, such as that 95% of Colombians have heard of the Bank, but only 44.6% identify it as responsible for…
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Natural disasters affect both the level and volatility of sovereign risk premiums in emerging economies, whereas stock market only experience changes in volatility.
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Most macroeconomic labor literature on estimating matching functions does not consider spatial spillover effects. However, job search and vacancy-filling processes often involve neighboring locations, as local workers can search for and fill vacancies in nearby labor markets.
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This paper analyzes whether the policy of VAT exemption days, implemented in Colombia between 2020 and 2022 for some products and merchandise lines, had a positive effect on the consumption of such exempted goods.
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Abstract: This paper employs network analysis to study world trade from 1995 to 2014. We focus on the main connective features of the world trade network (WTN) and their dynamics. Results suggest that countries’ efforts to attain the benefits of trade have resulted in an intertwined network…
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RESUMEN NO TÉCNICO‘Retornos de la capacitación para el trabajo en Colombia: evidencia basada en la Encuesta Social Longitudinal’
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Este documento evalúa el Proyecto de Acto Legislativo aprobado en su sexto debate, el cual busca aumentar los recursos transferidos a las regiones a través del Sistema General de Participaciones (SGP). Desde una perspectiva histórica, el sistema de transferencias a los territorios se fortaleció con…
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The housing program significantly reduced the incidence of housing deficits among beneficiary households. Additionally, these households showed a reduction in doctor visits and a lower incidence of gastrointestinal diseases, reflecting the program’s effectiveness in improving aspects related to…
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Freely Convertible Currencies
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On the occasion of its fourteenth special edition, Banco de la República´s Ensayos sobre Política Económica (ESPE) journal invites you to the seminar on Challenges of Fiscal Policy in the face of the Recent Macroeconomic Uncertainty. It will take place on the 20th of October of this year, in…
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Can technological misallocation generate financial frictions? We build a theoretical model with testable implications, in which the misallocation between R&D and production activities generates borrowing constraints. The investor offers the innovator a rent that is contingent to the success of…
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In the last years, there have been a series of changes related to global trends in the supply of financial services. These trends include economic integration, technological change, increased competition, disintermediation, deregulation and financial crises.1 Colombia has not been apart from this…
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Artículo publicado en: Emerging Markets Finance and Trade (M.E. Sharpe), vol. 48, num. 5, pp. 66-77, 2012.
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Artículo publicado en: Agribusiness, vol. 29, num. 4, pp. 497-508, 2013. doi: 10.1002/agr.21319.
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Artículo publicado en: Economics and Human Biology, vol. 11, pp. 416–425, 2013
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Artículo publicado en: Emerging Markets Finance and Trade (M.E. Sharpe), vol. 48, num. 4, pp. 50-66, 2012.
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Artículo publicado en: International Economic Journal (Taylor and Francis), vol. 26, num. 4, pp. 655-671, 2012.
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Artículo publicado en: American Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol. 94, num. 1, pp. 153–173, 2012.
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Artículo publicado en: Financial Markets and Portfolio Management (Springer), vol. 27, núm. 4, pp. 365-379, 2013.
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