Revista Ensayos sobre Política Económica (ESPE) - Fiscal Policy and the Cycle in Latin America: the Role of Financing Conditions and Fiscal Rules
En la revista Ensayos sobre Política Económica (ESPE) divulgamos los resultados y las propuestas de política que surgen de investigaciones académicas realizadas en el Banco de la República. Cuando nos lea, tenga siempre presente que el contenido de nuestros artículos, así como los análisis y conclusiones que de ellos se derivan, son exclusiva responsabilidad de sus autores. El material divulgado en nuestra revista ESPE no compromete ni representa la opinión del Banco de la República ni la de su Junta Directiva.
In the journal Ensayos sobre Política Económica - ESPE - we disclose the results and policy proposals that arise from academic research carried out at the Banco de la República. When you read us, always keep in mind that the content of our articles, as well as the analyzes and conclusions derived from them, are the sole responsibility of their authors. The material disclosed in our ESPE magazine does not compromise or represent the opinion of Banco de la República or that of its Board of Directors.
Abstract
A stronger macroeconomic position when the financial crisis erupted allowed Latin American economies to mitigate its impact through fiscal expansions, temporarily reversing the characteristic procyclical behaviour of fiscal policy. At the same time, in the last two decades fiscal rules have been extensively adopted in the region. This paper analyses the stabilising role of discretionary fiscal policy over time, and the influence of fiscal financing conditions and of fiscal rules in said behaviour for a sample of eight Latin American economies. The analysis shows three main results: i) fiscal policies became countercyclical during the crisis, but they have turned procyclical again in recent years; ii) financing conditions are the key driver of fiscal procyclicality, while iii) fiscal rules tend to neutralise it.
