Servicios
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The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.
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Los tres canales principales por los que se transmite la política monetaria, según la literatura económica, son: la tasa de interés, el crédito y el tipo de cambio; reconocemos que la importancia relativa y la efectividad de estos canales pueden variar según el contexto económico y las…
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Con la historia de los Habitantes de la Isla de Yap, hacemos una analogía al patrón oro del siglo XIX. En ese entonces había un “banco de la moneda” que inventariaba y guardaba las monedas más pesadas. De la misma forma que el oro tenía una representación en billetes, las monedas de piedra tenían…
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A dynamic linear model for data revisions and delays is proposed. This model extends Jacobs & Van Norden's [13] in two ways. First, the "true" data series is observable up to a fixed period of time M. And second, preliminary figures might be biased estimates of the true series. Otherwise, the…
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This paper contains a nonlinear, nonstationary autoregressive model whose intercept changes deterministically over time. The intercept is a flexible function of time, and its construction bears some resemblance to neural network models. A modeling technique, modified from one for single…
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Abstract
Assessing the dynamics of risk premium measures and its relationship with macroeconomic fundamentals is important for both macroeconomic policymakers and market practitioners. This paper analyzes the main determinants of CDS in Latin-America at different tenures, focusing on their…
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At the end of 2021, the labor market showed signs of a sluggish recovery, at a notably slower pace than economic activity. With seasonally adjusted figures from the household survey, job creation in the national aggregate saw a pause in October and November, due largely to a downturn in employment…
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The money issued by a central bank is called the monetary base. Every time the central bank purchases financial assets or makes other payments, primary money creation takes place.
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Monetary neutrality in the colombian Monetary neutrality in the Colombian real exchange rate
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This work analyzes the relationship between real interest rates and commodity prices. According to Frankels hypothesis (1986-2006): low real interest rates lead to high real commodity prices. However, some empirical evidence suggests that commodity prices can predict monetary policy. In this way…
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Presented during the Panel: Macroeconomic View on Colombia in London of the 6th version of Colombia InsideOut.
Hosts : Bolsa de Valores de Colombia (BVC) and Depósito Centralizado de Valores (Deceval)
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Abstract
Portfolio flows are an important source of funding for both private and public agents in emerging market economies. In this paper, we study the influence of changes in domestic and US monetary policy rates on portfolio inflows in an emerging market economy and discriminate among fixed…
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The role of the exchange rate and the exchange rate regime in the monetary policy decision-making process in Colombia is described. The rationale for the intervention of the Central Bank in the FX market is explained and the experience in this regard is reviewed. Special attention is given to the…
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Notas de la Presentación Reuniones Anuales del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID) Medellín, marzo 29 de 2009
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Presented at FLAR-CAF XIII Annual Conference
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Presented during “The Shadow of Neo-Protectionism and Coping with the Challenges of the Normalization Process” (Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee/Bank of Indonesia/UBS).
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Banco de la República (the Central Bank of Colombia) main instrument to achieve the inflation target is the monetary policy interest rate. Decisions on the level of this interest rate consider the analysis of the current situation of the economy (prices, output, and employment, among others), its…
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If theory-consistent models can ever hope to forecast well and to be useful for policy, they have to relate to data which though rich in information is uncertain, unbalanced and sometimes forecasts from external sources about the future path of other variables. One example from many is…
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Presented at 9th High Level Conference on the International Monetary System.
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Monetary policy implications for an oil-exporting economy of lower long-run international oil pricesThe sudden collapse of oil prices poses a challenge to inflation targeting central banks in oil exporting economies. This paper illustrates that challenge and conducts a quantitative assessment of the impact of permanent changes in oil prices in a small and open economy, in which oil represents an…
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Monetary policy should continuously assess the state of the economy, as well as its future developments and prospects over the next four to eight quarterly terms. It is during this time span that changes in interest-rate intervention rates have their effect on other interest rates and have…
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Working paper for a meeting with the Governor of Banco de la República, the Finance Minister of Colombia and members of the Trade Council.
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Translation available since: 2015 | Periodicity: Quarterly
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Inflation would peak in March and start to gradually decline as of the second quarter of 2023, bringing inflation back to the 3% target over the next two years.
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Inflation continued to decline but remains above the 3% target. Economic activity is gradually recovering, with strong momentum observed in the first quarter of the year. The current benchmark rate remains consistent with inflation’s convergence to the target over the next two years and a gradual…
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