Working Papers on Economics

Developing countries have a vast informal sector generally associated with low productivity levels. The response of informal employment to tax policies might depend on labor market  rigidities. This paper proposes a theoretical framework consisting of a search and…

This document reviews the potential macroeconomic effects of issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) for the use of individuals and businesses. A careful selection of the architecture, and the economic and technological design aspects of this digital form of central bank money…

This document reviews the potential macroeconomic effects of issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) for the use of individuals and businesses. A careful selection of the architecture, and the economic and technological design aspects of this digital form of central bank money…

This paper examines the evolution of women's participation in the labor market from 1960 to 2018, shedding light on the complex factors that influence their labor opportunities. The study  emphasizes the significance of the historical context in  understanding these…

Based on monthly disaggregated Consumer Price Index (CPI) item series and macroeconomic series, we explore the advantages of forecast inflation from a disaggregated to an aggregated level by aggregating the forecasts. We compare the performance of this approach with the forecast…

This study aims to establish a comprehensive linkage between CO2 emissions and the composition of energy sources, economic growth, and reforestation, thereby shedding light on their intricate connections in Colombia over the period 1970-2018. First, we use different types of…

Our study analyzes the impact of debt moratorium policies, possibly the oldest approach to addressing repayment problems. Using Colombian administrative data, we compare firms that narrowly met the criteria for moratoria (eligible firms could not exceed 60 days overdue…

Although greenhouse gas emissions from the Latin America (LAC) region are not particularly significant, climate change is a worldwide challenge. Hence, we analyze the main factors that increase and mitigate emissions in LAC countries by emphasising the importance of preserving and…

This document presents a Gaussian Affine Term Structure Model (GATSM) of the zero-coupon public debt curve issued locally by the Colombian Government, adopting the methodological approach of Hamilton and Wu (2012) to solve the problems of identification and instability in the…

This study follows a novel approach proposed by Angelico et al. (2022) using Twitter to measure inflation perception in Colombia in real time. By applying machine learning techniques, we implement two real-time indicators of inflation perception and show…

This study follows a novel approach proposed by Angelico et al. (2022) using Twitter to measure inflation perception in Colombia in real time. By applying machine learning techniques, we implement two real-time indicators of inflation perception and show …

This paper evaluates the fiscal and macroeconomic effects of some risks faced by the health system. These comprise changes in demographic and morbidity patterns, new medical technologies, inefficiencies in the system and the structure of the labor market. These…

We evaluate the returns to signaling occupation-specific skills using unique administrative data from a nationwide certification program in Colombia. The program certifies skills and issues three certificates: basic, intermediate, and advanced. We use…

The objective of the study is to model and determine the tax incidence of a reduction in the corporate income tax in Colombia. To meet this objective, a dynamic and stochastic general equilibrium model DSGE of a closed economy with heterogeneous households and two…

Foreign portfolio investments can affect the Colombian exchange market mainly through the demand for hedging that investors make in the foreign exchange derivatives market, and the exchange of dollars for pesos that materializes when investing in public debt…

We study the behaviour of three quantitative sample surveys and a non sample inflation expectation report for Colombia. We found that expectations in Colombia; (i) are not strongly, i.e.

We study the effect of macroeconomic announcements surprises on Colombian treasury bond spot rates in the medium term. For this, we employ a two-step regression approach proposed by Altavilla, Giannone and Modugno (2017), which takes into account the high frequency…

We examine the adjustment of a small, open, emerging market economy (SOEME) to an unexpected increase in the minimum wage using an extended New-Keynesian SOE model that incorporates heterogeneous households, a flexible production structure, and a minimum wage rule.…

We investigate the entry and exit of short-cycle higher education programs (SCPs), which last two or three years and can address local skill needs. Exploiting administrative data from Colombia, we study markets defined by geographic location and field of…