Working Papers on Economics

HOW UNCERTAÍN ARE NAIRU ESTÍMATES ÍN COLOMBÍA? HOW UNCERTAÍN ARE NAIRU ESTÍMATES ÍN COLOMBÍA?

Unemployment rate and the real wage behavior: a neoclassical hint for the Colombian labor market adjustment Unemployment rate and the real wage behavior: a neoclassical hint for Colombian labor market adjustment

TAX EXPORTING: AN ANALYSIS USING A MULTIREGIONAL CGE MODEL   Tax Exporting: An Analysis Using a Multiregional CGE Model Ana María Iregui * Estudios Económicos Banco de la República

Transmission mechanisms and inflation targeting: the case of Colombia’s desinflation

We compute both seigniorage rate and  welfare cost of inflation rate in Colombia using a  Sidrauski-type model  in which preferences are separable functions of the service flows of  non-durable goods and  money holdings.  The set of the estimated parameters imply…

Bayesian Model Estimation and Selection for the Colombian Exchange Rate Bayesian Model Estimation and Selection for the Colombian Exchange Rate Norberto Rodríguez Niño  */

An Estimation Of the Nonlinear Phillips Curve in Colombia An Estimation Of the Neonlinear Phillips Curve in Colombia Javier Gómez and Juan Manuel Julio  */

THE COLOMBIAN BANKING CRISIS: THE COLOMBIAN BANKING CRISIS: Macroeconomic Consequences and What to Expect Andres F. Arias  */

Returns and interest rate: A nonlinear relationship in the Bogotá stock market   Returns and interest rate: A nonlinear relationship in the Bogotá stock market   Luis Eduardo Arango, Andrés González, and Carlos Esteban Posada *  Banco de la República  Summary  …

In this paper, we propose a methodology for calculating a leading index of the economic activity based on a modification of Stock and Watson’s (1989, 1991, 1992) approach. We use Kalman filter techniques for estimating the state space representation of the leading index model. The methodology is…

In a small macroeconomic model of the Colombian economy I investigate the problem of selecting a policy rule that is consistent with inflation targeting. I spell out the characteristics of the optimal feedback and output parameters in the rule, as well as for the optimal forecasting horizon for…

This paper provides an empirical analysis of Colombian integration with East Asia using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, in which we assess the effects of several trade liberalization scenarios on trade flows and welfare.The results show that there is an important potential for the…

General equilibrium theory was criticized for its apparent irrefutability, as seemingly implied by the Sonnenschein-Mantel-Debreu theorem.  This view was challenged by Brown and Matzkin (1996), who showed the existence of testable restrictions on the equilibrium manifold. Brown and Matzkin…

In this paper I consider the following problem: there is a collection of exogenously given socially feasible sets, and for each one of them, each one of a group of individuals chooses from an individually feasible set. The fact that the product of the individually feasible sets is larger than…

This paper investigates the effect of sovereign risk on the stochastic rational expectations equilibrium of a real business cycle small open economy. The market is imperfect because the sovereign cannot commit to repay its outstanding debt and chooses to default when it is optimal to do so. The…

This paper studies the dynamic response of a few key macroeconomic variables to each one of three exogenous shocks: monetary, government spending and technological shocks. By using a cash in advance model with two market frictions, one in the intermediation of loanable funds, and one in the…

This paper studies the performance, in terms of volatility and welfare, of different monetary policy rules in an economy with two market frictions. We consider a financial friction that highlights the credit channel as the monetary transmission mechanism and a labor friction, that considerably…

In this paper we check the relationship between the yields of the Colombian bonds traded in the (secondary) internal market and the yields of the sovereign global securities for the sample period 1999-2001. The hypothesis we maintain is that, under the assumption of capital mobility, it should…