Working Papers on Economics

Three methodologies to estimate the natural interest rate, NIR, are implemented for the Colombian economy. Two methods are statistical filters and the third involves some economic theory. The first method is based on unobserved components decomposition of the real interest rate and explores the…

This paper analyzes the evolution and impact of capital flows in Colombia over the past five years. An examination of the nature and composition of the capital flows indicates that to large extent they have originated in foreign direct investment, especially in the oil and mining sectors. The…

In this document we lay out the microeconomic foundations of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model designed to forecast and to advice monetary policy authorities in Colombia. The model is called Policy Analysis Tool Applied to Colombian Needs (PATACON). In companion documents we present…

The role of the exchange rate and the exchange rate regime in the monetary policy decision-making process in Colombia is described. The rationale for the intervention of the Central Bank in the FX market is explained and the experience in this regard is reviewed. Special attention is given to…

The most recent episode of market turmoil exposed the limitations resulting from the traditional focus on too-big-to-fail institutions within an increasingly systemic-crisis-prone financial system, and encouraged the appearance of the too-connected-to-fail (TCTF) concept. The TCTF concept…

Preliminary and delayed Colombian GDP reports are replaced with optimal in-sample now-casts of “true” GDP figures derived from a model for data revisions. The new GDP time series is augmented with optimal out-of-sample forecasts and back-casts of the “true” GDP figures derived from the same…

A dynamic linear model for data revisions and delays is proposed. This model extends Jacobs & Van Norden's [13] in two ways. First, the "true" data series is observable up to a fixed period of time M. And second, preliminary figures might be biased estimates of the true series. Otherwise,…

We assess the effect of the homicide rate, individual´s perception of security in their neighborhood of residence, and of the effect of their having been victimized, on life satisfaction. We find a negative effect of the homicide rate on life satisfaction for the subsample of individuals living…

This paper uses a survey on wage formation that was applied to 1,305 Colombian firms to study wage-setting decisions with respect to newly hired employees. The Colombian case is interesting, since the country´s labour market performance, especially its unemployment rate and level of informality…

This paper provides evidence of positive externalities in human capital that help to explain divergences in development worldwide. We estimate the supply and demand for human capital using a five-year panel involving 60 countries and covering the period 1980-2000, and found that there exist…

The existence of wage differentials across sectors is a widely observed phenomenon. This paper provides new elements to understand inter and intra-sectoral wage differentials in Colombia by analysing a wage setting survey of 1305 firms and emphasizing the role of firm characteristics. The…

The aim of this paper is to explore firms wage adjustment practices in the Colombian formal labor market; specifically, the timing and frequency of wage increases, as well as the link between wage and price changes. To this end, we use an ad hoc survey of 1,305 small, medium and large firms…

Capital controls and intervention in the foreign exchange market are two controversial policy options that many countries have adopted in the past in order to influence the exchange rate and moderate capital flows. Colombia has a long record in the use of these policies with mixed results and…

Whilst emphasis has been given to short-term dependence of financial returns, long-term dependence remains overlooked. Despite financial literature provides evidence of long-term´s memory existence, serial-independence assumption prevails.   This document´s long-term dependence…

The recent financial crisis has brought to the forefront the need of a better understanding of the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy. The main step forward in this direction has drawn on work aimed at stressing the role of the financial sector in this transmission. Particular emphasis…

We use occupations descriptions for Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, to build computer-use related tasks intensities, and link then to series of cross sections of data of each country in order to empirically assess to what extent the observed empirical regularities, and the reallocation of workers…

This paper uses a wage setting survey of 1,305 Colombian firms to explore the nature and sources of wage rigidities. This is the first study of a non-European emerging economy that uses evidence from a survey of firms to analyse this topic. The survey was carried out during the first half of…

This work analyzes the relationship between real interest rates and commodity prices. According to Frankel’s hypothesis (1986-2006): “low real interest rates lead to high real commodity prices”. However, some empirical evidence suggests that commodity prices can predict monetary policy. In this…

An application of Bayesian Model Averaging, BMA, is implemented to construct combined forecasts for the colombian inflation for the short and medium run. A model selection algorithm is applied over a set of linear models with a large dataset of potencial predictors using marginal as well as…

This paper analyses a comprehensive dataset on migration using robust econometric methodologies to assess a range of economic and social impacts of migration on individuals and households left behind. Our findings indicate that there is no significant impact on labour force participation in…