Working Papers on Economics

This study aims to establish a comprehensive linkage between CO2 emissions and the composition of energy sources, economic growth, and reforestation, thereby shedding light on their intricate connections in Colombia over the period 1970-2018. First, we use different types of…

Based on monthly disaggregated Consumer Price Index (CPI) item series and macroeconomic series, we explore the advantages of forecast inflation from a disaggregated to an aggregated level by aggregating the forecasts. We compare the performance of this approach with the forecast…

This paper examines the evolution of women's participation in the labor market from 1960 to 2018, shedding light on the complex factors that influence their labor opportunities. The study  emphasizes the significance of the historical context in  understanding these…

This document reviews the potential macroeconomic effects of issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) for the use of individuals and businesses. A careful selection of the architecture, and the economic and technological design aspects of this digital form of central bank money…

This document reviews the potential macroeconomic effects of issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) for the use of individuals and businesses. A careful selection of the architecture, and the economic and technological design aspects of this digital form of central bank money…

Developing countries have a vast informal sector generally associated with low productivity levels. The response of informal employment to tax policies might depend on labor market  rigidities. This paper proposes a theoretical framework consisting of a search and…

We show that capital controls (CC), by slowing-down firm debt-growth in the boom, improve firm performance during crises. Exploiting a tax on foreign-currency (FX) debt inflows in  Colombia before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and multiple firm-level and loan-level…

We examine the extent in which the ratios of book-to-market and earnings-to-price predict excess asset returns in an emerging market economy like Colombia. We want to find the magnitude in which these ratios help to forecast excess returns and if there is any evidence …

This paper analyses the behavior of household consumption in Colombia during Covid-19 post pandemic. Initially, it introduces a regional comparison emphasizing in the severity of lockdown and the government fiscal responses. Then, it describes the dynamics of the main consumption…

We use Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, a deep learning technique, to forecast Colombian headline inflation one year ahead through two approaches. The first one uses only information from the target variable, while the second one incorporates additional information from…

The incomplete pass-through of exchange rates to prices is a well-documented phenomenon. Firms respond optimally to exchange rate shocks by adjusting margins and buying inputs from regions with more advantageous terms of trade. Consumers, in turn, substitute goods that become more…

We bring together the largest meta-analysis ever conducted in the macroeconomic literature to investigate the effects of central bank credibility on monetary policy. With nearly 1,200 surveyed effects, we first confirm that: (i) conventional policy significantly affects inflation and…

Over the past 30 years, monetary and macroprudential policy in Colombia evolved towards the pursuit of a low and credible inflation target and a stable financial system. The protracted inflation that began in the early seventies was defeated at the turn of the century with the help of…

Education in Colombia and Latin America is characterized by significant gaps in the quality of education as measured by standardized test scores. This  paper assesses the impact of a Colombian program called SaberEs, which strengthens preparation for standardized…

Colombia saw a drop in investment as a result of the COVID-19 shock, which resulted in a negative gap in the second quarter of 2020 of -2.8% of the GDP. In the context of the region, Peru was hardest hit, while countries such as Mexico, Chile, and Brazil suffered minor setbacks. The…

Colombia saw a drop in investment as a result of the COVID-19 shock, which resulted in a negative gap in the second quarter of 2020 of -2.8% of the GDP. In the context of the region, Peru was hardest hit, while countries such as Mexico, Chile, and Brazil suffered minor setbacks. The…

The burden of Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) is expected to increase due to the aging of the population and risk factors from unhealthy lifestyle habits. This paper aims to analyze how the evolution of NCDs (e.g., Cancer, Diabetes, Cardiovascular Disease, Chronic Respiratory Disease…

This study evaluates the financing mechanisms of the healthcare system, differentiating between resources of fiscal, parafiscal, and other origins used primarily to cover the costs of the contributory and subsidized health regimes. In recent years, the sector has faced financial and…

We provide an overview of the primary structural features of the labor market in Colombia and survey the margins of adjustment of the market during the pandemic. Given the decline of real wages amid the post-pandemic inflationary surge, mainly due to the formal wage rigidity in the…