Working Papers on Economics

In this paper, we compute standard measures of fluidity for the Colombian urban labor market: worker and job reallocation rates and the excess of worker reallocation over job reallocation. We analyze the period between the second semester of 2008 and the second semester of 2014, finding evidence…

This paper reports on the recent developments in the construction of an interregional input-output matrix for Colombia (IIOM-COL). As part of an ongoing project that aims to update an interregional CGE (ICGE) model for the country, the CEER model, a fully specified interregional input-output…

We introduce a dispatch model of Colombia's independent system operator (XM) in order to study the relative merits of self-commitment vs. centralized unit comment.  We capitalize on the transition that took place in 2009 from self-unit commitment to centralize unit commitment and use data…

We implement a modified version of DebtRank, a measure of systemic impact inspired in feedback centrality, to recursively measure the contagion effects caused by the default of a selected financial institution. In our case contagion is a liquidity issue, measured as the decrease in financial…

A core goal of regulators and financial authorities is to understand how market prices convey information on the financial health of its participants. From this viewpoint we build an Early-Warning Indicators System (EWIS) that allows for identifying those financial institutions perceived as…

Fluctuations in commodity prices are an important driver of business cycles in small emerging market economies (EMEs). We document how these fluctuations correlate strongly with the business cycle in EMEs. We then embed a commodity sector into a multi-country EMEs business cycle model where…

This paper assesses the efficiency of crop and livestock production in Colombia by using a sample of 1,565 households. The study considers households located in different production systems which differ in geography, climate and soil types. These conditions affect technical efficiency and thus…

We study the interdependence between real commodity prices and world real GDP using long-term annual data since 1870, by performing two empirical exercises. First, we compute long-term and medium-term cycles and measure their degree of synchronization for different leads and lags. Second, we…

Determinants of consumer credit are estimated by using information from a Credit Union located in Medellín-Colombia. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first investigation using this kind of data in Colombia. We find that life cycle-permanent income hypothesis (LC-PIH) related variables…

This work uses readily accessible data about the stocks of unemployed workers, labor force and duration of unemployment to measure the job finding and separation rates for Colombia from 1984 to 2014. It also evaluates the relative contribution of these rates to the fluctuations of unemployment…

Inglés: We propose a maximal covering location problem with a budget constraint to determine the optimal location of facilities that provide fast police assistance to homicide hot spots, to mitigate criminal activity in Medellín (Colombia). We use the Google Maps Application Programming…

Inglés: In spite of the increasing evidence that has revealed that early access to financial services has long-term impacts, children and adolescents continue to face major obstacles to be financially included, particularly in the developing world. This document presents the main results of a…

This document explores an alternative strategic asset allocation framework for foreign exchange reserves, whose main purpose is to maximize the risk-adjusted returns maintaining the objectives of liquidity and safety of a foreign reserves’ portfolio.   The overall portfolio can be…

This paper has as main objective to build a composite metric of financial soundness for the private corporate sector in Colombia. Instead of relying on the individual and sometimes restrictive financial ratio analysis approach, the purpose of this document is to provide a single metric aimed at…

The paper presents a global model for analysis and projections. The model features a handful of elements that make it suitable for analyzing three broad sets of topics; first, systemic risk and its transmission to country risk premiums; second, the transmission from country risk premiums to…

We use experimental data of a training program in 2005 in Colombia. We find that even up to ten years ahead, the JeA program had a positive and significant effect on the probability to work in the formal sector, and to work for a large firm. Applicants in the treatment group also contributed…

We present a stochastic frontier model with random inefficiency parameters which is able to capture the influence of risk-taking on bank efficiency and that distingues those effects among banks with different characteristics. Cost and profit efficiency are found to be over- and underestimated…

Many central banks that have opted for monetary autonomy have also been reluctant to relinquish control over the value of their currencies. As a result, they have operated through both interest rate and foreign exchange interventions.  However, in the context of the monetary trilemma, both…

This paper analyzes the role of the Great Depression and protectionism in the Colombian industrialization of the early 1930s as well as the role of other determinants in the rapid industrialization that took place during the period 1934-1953. We conclude that the market pushed industrialization…

This  paper  uses  the  Colombian  National  Health  Survey  to  analyze  the relationship between education and risky health behaviors, namely smoking, heavy drinking, being obese, and unsafe sexual behavior, by estimating the education gradient…