The Rise and Perpetuation of a Moderate Inflation, Colombia 1970-1991
The series Working Papers on Economics is published by the Office for Economic Studies at the Banco de la República (Central Bank of Colombia). The works published are provisional, and their authors are fully responsible for the opinions expressed in them, as well as for possible mistakes. The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.
Colombian inflationary experience is explained using a theoretical model that stresses two elements: the effect of shocks and the type of policy designed to respond to them. The empirical investigation uses the event-study methodology and finds that the model successfully accounts for the main characteristics of the country's inflationary process; foreign exchange reserves, agricultural and policy shocks, as well as lack of commitment to low infaltion by the authorities are the main causes behind the sustained high/moderate level of inflation. As assessment of the costs of inflation and price variability, widely documented for other countries, is not found during the periods of high but stable inflation in Colombia.
