The informal sector is an extensive phenomenon in developing countries. While some of its implications have drawn considerable attention in the literature, one relatively unexplored aspect has to do with the saving patterns of workers and firms and how these might influence aggregate savings and…
Working Papers on Economics
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Monetary policy implications for an oil-exporting economy of lower long-run international oil prices
Publicación |The sudden collapse of oil prices poses a challenge to inflation targeting central banks in oil exporting economies. This paper illustrates that challenge and conducts a quantitative assessment of the impact of permanent changes in oil prices in a small and open economy, in which oil represents…
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Our research seeks to determine the impact on female labor outcomes of the amendment on the Colombian labor law in which maternity leave was extended from 12 to 14 weeks (through Law 1468 of July 2011). To identify this impact we compare labor market outcomes of two groups of women with…
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We study the effect of shocks to the United States government bonds term premium on Latin American government bonds term premia. For doing so, we compute dynamic multipliers. Our main findings indicate that Latin American countries’ term premia respond permanently to changes in United States…
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This paper provides evidence on the positive role of fiscal decentralization on regional economic growth in Colombia since the promulgation of the Political Constitution of 1991. The empirical strategy involved the choice of a suitable estimator for the panel data approach, the Augmented Mean…
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This paper presents the construction of a tailor-made Macro Computable General Equilibrium Model for the Colombian economy that satisfies Banco de la República's macroeconomic programming and forecasting interests. Using information on the national accounts divulged by the National Statistics…
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In this paper we survey prominent theories that have shaped the literature on sterilized foreign exchange interventions. We identify three main strands of literature: 1) that which advocates the use of sterilized interventions; 2) that which deems sterilized interventions futile; and 3) that…
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This paper studies the behavior of the survival function of accruing loans during the slowdown experienced by the Colombian economy between January-2008 and March-2009 as documented by Alfonso et al. (2013). We use a dataset with information of different vintage loans between July-2007 and March…
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We embed a small open economy model for Colombia into the global risk model of Gómez-Pineda, Guillaume, and Tanyeri (2014). The small open economy model is estimated by Bayesian methods and used for analysis and projections. The model enable us to give a consistent treatment of shocks to global…
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A small open macroeconomic model, in which an optimal interest rate rule emerges to drive the inflation behavior, is used to model inflation within an inflation targeting framework. This set up is used to estimate the relationship between commodity prices shocks and the inflation process in a…
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This paper provides evidence of short-run predictability for the real exchange rate by performing out-of-sample tests of a forecasting equation which is derived from a consumption-based asset pricing model. In this model, the real exchange rate is predictable as a result of the implications of…
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Typically, central banks use a variety of individual models (or a combination of models) when forecasting inflation rates. Most of these require excessive amounts of data, time, and computational power; all of which are scarce when monetary authorities meet to decide over policy interventions.…
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In this paper we set up a small open economy model with financial frictions, following Curdia and Woodford (2010)’s model. Unlike other results in the literature such as Curdia and Woodford (2010), McCulley and Ramin (2008) and Taylor (2008), we find that optimal monetary policy should not…
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This paper uses the first wave of the Colombian Longitudinal Survey (ELCA) to analyze the relationship between individual health status and labor force participation. The empirical modeling strategy accounts for the presence of potential endogeneity between these two variables.
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This paper analyses the effects of sterilised, intraday foreign exchange market operations (non-discretionary and discretionary) on foreign exchange returns and volatility in four inflation targeting economies in Latin America. The distribution of exchange rates during intervention and non-…
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An interacting network coupling financial institutions’ multiplex (i.e. multi-layer) and financial market infrastructures’ single-layer networks gives an accurate picture of a financial system’s true connective architecture. We examine and compare the main properties of Colombian multiplex and…
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In this paper, I estimate the demand for housing in Bogotá, modeling electricity consumption explicitly to take into account the crossed subsidies included in Colombian utility rates. I use household level data on housing prices, observable dwelling attributes, and demographic variables to…
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Using Add Health, a very comprehensive longitudinal data set of teenagers and young adults in the United States, we estimate a structural dynamic model of the determinants of obesity. In addition to including many of the well-recognized endogenous factors mentioned in the literature as obesity…
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We study endogenous growth within a model with occupational choice in which innovators produce ideas, within an asymmetric information framework. Each innovator has private knowledge of their production costs. Developers offer innovators non-linear contract schemes that affect both the number of…
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Using data from Medellín, second largest city in Colombia, we asses in this paper how a set of neighborhood characteristics determines wages and labor supply for workers in the city. We use GIS data to construct measures of the quality of environments where workers live. This paper focuses in…