Abstract: La reconfiguración de las cadenas globales de valor ha impulsado estrategias de relocalización buscando una mayor resiliencia a cambios en el entorno internacional pese a sus inherentes desafíos en términos de costos y competitividad. Este estudio evalúa los…
Bogotá, Colombia
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A nonlinear specification of demand for cash in Colombia A nonlinear specification of demand for cash in Colombia By Luis E. Arango and Andrés González(1)
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A Statement of the Colombian Constitutional Court has mandated wage indexation on the basis of past inflation. A simple model with a wage price system, a real block, and an inflation targeting interest rule is calibrated to resemble price setting in the Colombian economy and to analyze the…
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The construction of coincident indexes for the economic activity of a country is a common practice since the fifties. The methodologies vary from heuristic methods to probabilistic or statistical ones. In this paper, we present a new procedure for estimating a coincident index of the state of…
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Abstract: Desentrañamos empíricamente los efectos de corto y mediano plazo de los movimientos del tipo de cambio sobre la inversión de las empresas no financieras en Colombia entre 2005 y 2019. Encontramos que una depreciación estructural del peso afecta negativamente la…
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This study uses two different econometric frameworks to study exchange rate pass-through to import, producer and consumer prices in Colombia. Both frameworks are based on vector autoregressive (VAR) models, the first using an unrestricted VAR model, and the second using the Johansen framework of…
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This study develops three exchange rate models as well as a simple statistical model defined as a random walk with a variable drift. The exchange rate models all use the purchasing power parity hypothesis to account for the long-term relationships between prices and the exchange rate, together…
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This paper tests for purchasing power parity (PPP) between Colombia and its main trading partners using the Johansen framework of multivariate cointegration. The tests shows that PPP does not hold in the strong sense, but a clear purchasing power relationship is, nevertheless, show to exist. The…
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In this paper, we propose a methodology for calculating a leading index of the economic activity based on a modification of Stock and Watson’s (1989, 1991, 1992) approach. We use Kalman filter techniques for estimating the state space representation of the leading index model. The methodology is…
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In this theoretical report, the identifiability property of a coincident index model is studied. As a result, characterization of the identifiability conditions solves a model specification problem, which was detected in the design of an earlier index for the Colombian economy. Key…
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In a small macroeconomic model of the Colombian economy I investigate the problem of selecting a policy rule that is consistent with inflation targeting. I spell out the characteristics of the optimal feedback and output parameters in the rule, as well as for the optimal forecasting horizon for…
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This paper provides an empirical analysis of Colombian integration with East Asia using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, in which we assess the effects of several trade liberalization scenarios on trade flows and welfare.The results show that there is an important potential for the…
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General equilibrium theory was criticized for its apparent irrefutability, as seemingly implied by the Sonnenschein-Mantel-Debreu theorem. This view was challenged by Brown and Matzkin (1996), who showed the existence of testable restrictions on the equilibrium manifold. Brown and Matzkin…
