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The private corporate sector is the primary debtor in the Colombian financial system (commercial loans account for 54.9% of the total gross portfolio). Consequently, it is extremely important to measure and monitor the risk this sector of the economy might pose to the financial system. Ever since…

The financial system’s response to the various phases of the cycle is characterized by high credit growth during the upswing phase and its rationing during the downswing. This behavior is related to the financial system’s tendency to underestimate the credit risk during the upturn and to…

In this paper we develop a banking model to study the traditional credit and the microcredit markets. We suppose a monopolistic traditional bank that specializes in screening potential debtors based on their risk profile and a microcredit bank that focus on monitoring the riskier profile customers…

Research on banking performance and efficiency has advanced greatly in the past three decades, justified by the importance of a properly functioning financial system to the economy in general. In Colombia, too, banks have been the subject of research studies, though as yet to a lesser extent than…

In this document we develop a DSGE model to analyze the eect that a consumption boom and a productivity shock have over nancial stability and macroeconomic variables, in both, an economy with and without Basel III capital requirements and earnings reinvestment rule. The results suggest that Basel…

The financial crisis of the late 2000's highlighted the importance of strengthening risk management systems in financial markets. Consequently, an increasing interest in strategies to quantify risk under extreme scenarios has spawned. One of such techniques is CrashMetrics, a methodology for…

In recent years, credit growth has been accelerated recording higher levels of credit as a percentage of GDP, compared to previous years in some countries of Latin America. In Colombia, credit to GDP indicator had increased almost 10 percentage points in the last ve years. For this reason, it is…

In this paper we seek to assess the ability of banks to withstand the effects of an increase in credit risk as a result of changes in the macroeconomic environment. To do so we estimate a credit risk model for each loan type as a function of four macroeconomic variables commonly used in the…

Bankruptcy is a threat to financial stability, if a company fails to meet its financial obligations. Obviously, the risk to financial stability increases with the number of liquidated corporations and the size of the debt each has acquired. Moreover, in a scenario characterized by a significant…

Elements of both supply and demand interact during a financial crisis, which explains the precarious growth in credit. Nonetheless, it is important that demand-side incentives be generated ex post. These also help to reactivate loans by fueling the supply of credit. The latter usually remains…

One of the biggest threats to any company is that of becoming insolvent. A threat of this kind to corporate financial stability is of relevance not only to investors and employees but also to financial-sector lenders, auditors and regulators, among others. Hence the importance of a model that helps…

Entities and regulators alike are becoming more interested in measuring and the market risk (MR) associated with the trading book1 , given the growing share of investments comprising the financial system’s assets. The Office of the Superintendencia Bancaria (Banking Superintendency)2 in Colombia…

Financial institutions rate loans as an expression of the risk they believe the client poses. With the data from those ratings, they can evaluate the current quality of their balance sheet and calculate the loan-loss provisions required for their loan portfolio. A loan rating also is an instrument…

This paper is an attempt at constructing a simple and eff

Mandatory pension fund (MPF) affiliates in Colombia do not have a great deal of information to gauge the financial performance of pension fund managers (PFM). At present, each PFM publishes a monthly report on average profitability for the preceding 36 months (tri-annual yield). However, this…

The relationship between capital ows and domestic credit emerges from dierent channels which are usually not directly identied. In this paper, a principal-agent approach is proposed in order to disentangle the channels through which shocks on capital debt ows can aect credit-related variables…

The aim of this paper is to identify a set of early warning indicators that effectively discriminate between firms that are more prone to default on their financial obligations from those that are less prone to do so. To fulfill this objective, we use the Discriminant Analysis methodology. We find…

The importance of the banking sector as a key player in interest rate passthrough has been recognized recently in literature concerning monetary policy transmission mechanisms. The interest rate channel, which operates when banks pass on changes in the monetary policy rate to interest rates for the…

The importance of properly monitoring and regulating liquidity risk is associated with systemic risk and with stability of the financial system. If institutions do not measure liquidity risk adequately and if it is not well regulated, financial institutions could see their positions affected by a…

The financial crisis of the late 2000's underscored the importance of identifying systemically significant institutions and developing mechanisms for the latter to internalize the externalities they create on the economy should they fail. Using monthly data for the period comprised between…

As Freixas and Rochet (1997) mention, in perfect competition the optimal choice for banks is determined by the point where intermediation margins are equal to operating costs. In this scenario, market equilibrium is not affected by a bank’s actions. In contrast, when a bank has market power, it can…

To complement a number of studies done in Colombia, based largely on figures from institutional balance sheets, Banco de la Republica has conducted three surveys to date on the credit situation in Colombia. The aim is to collect qualitative information that can be used to determine how financial…