We assess the causes and implications of the greater nancial participation in commodity markets post-2003. Focusing on crude oil, we build a calibrated macro- nance model of oil prices and quantities that also determines consumer welfare. We show that shifts in the preferences and constraints…
Lavan Mahadeva
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Theory-consistent models have to be kept small to be tractable. If they are to forecast well, they have to condition on data that are unmodelled, noisy, patchy and about the future. Agents can also use these data to form their own expectations. In this paper we illustrate a scheme for jointly…
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In this document we lay out the microeconomic foundations of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, called Policy Analysis Tool Applied to Colombian Needs (PATACON), designed as a forecast tool and as a guide to advise monetary policy authorities in Colombia. In companion documents we…
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There is now an impetus to apply dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models to forecasting. But these models typically rely on purpose-built data, for example on tradable and nontradable sector outputs. How then do we know that the model will forecast well, in advance? We develop an early…
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The objective of this paper is to analyze how international cycles affect the real GDP cycle and so monetary policy decisions in Colombia. We estimate that cycles in world GDP, export prices and capital inflows are strongly associated with the Colombian business cycle both on impact and even…
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If theory-consistent models can ever hope to forecast well and to be useful for policy, they have to relate to data which though rich in information is uncertain, unbalanced and sometimes forecasts from external sources about the future path of other variables. One example from many is…
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In this document we lay out the microeconomic foundations of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model designed to forecast and to advice monetary policy authorities in Colombia. The model is called Policy Analysis Tool Applied to Colombian Needs (PATACON). In companion documents we present…
