Working Papers on Economics - Labor force and population aging

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The series Working Papers on Economics is published by the Office for Economic Studies at the Banco de la República (Central Bank of Colombia). The works published are provisional, and their authors are fully responsible for the opinions expressed in them, as well as for possible mistakes. The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.

AUTHOR OR EDITOR
Parra-Polanía, Julián Andrés
Ladino Riveros, Juan D.

The series Working Papers on Economics contributes to the dissemination and promotion of the work by researchers from the institution. On multiple occasions, these works have been the result of collaborative work with individuals from other national or international institutions. This series is indexed at Research Papers in Economics (RePEc). The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.

Publication Date:
Monday, 17 March 2025

Abstract

This document presents projections of Colombia’s labor force until 2070 in the context of demographic change and its economic implications. The calculations are based on microdata from the Gran Encuesta Integrada de Hogares (GEIH), population projections from DANE, and estimates from CEPAL on the future evolution of Colombia’s labor force until 2050. Additionally, alternative scenarios are considered, incorporating the recent decline in the country’s birth rate. Based on DANE’s original population projections, the labor force would begin to decline starting in 2054. However, in alternative scenarios, the beginning of this decline would occur approximately 10 years earlier, between 2043 and 2045. In all alternative scenarios, the labor force will continue to grow at a higher rate than the total population for a couple more decades.
 

Considering the recent decline in the birth rate, the beginning of the decline in the labor force in Colombia would occur between 2043 and 2045.