Budget Deficit, Money Growth and Inflation: Evidence from the Colombian Case
The series Working Papers on Economics is published by the Office for Economic Studies at the Banco de la República (Central Bank of Colombia). The works published are provisional, and their authors are fully responsible for the opinions expressed in them, as well as for possible mistakes. The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.
Evidence of the causal long-term relationship between budget deficit, money growth and inflation in Colombia is analyzed in this paper, considering the standard (M1), the narrowest (M0-Base) and the broadest (M3) definitions of money supply. Using a vector error correction (VEC) model with quarterly data over the last 25 years, the study found a close relationship between inflation and money growth on the one hand, and between money growth and fiscal deficit, on the other. The size of the long-term parameters looks acceptable, particularly when compared to what is seen in other countries, using analogous or different techniques. The conclusion, supported by several statistical tests, is that the Sargent and Wallace hypothesis would be the most appropriate approach to understanding the dynamics of these variables.
The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Central Bank of Colombia. The author wishes to thank to Karen Rodriguez for her valuable technical assistance.
