González-Molano, Eliana Rocío

This Ensayos Sobre Política Económica (ESPE in Spanish) paper is framed within the area of macroeconomic literature that studies the expectation formation process. Under an inflation targeting scheme, expected inflation plays a central role in the analysis of monetary…

For central banks that have adopted an inflation targeting strategy, measuring and understanding inflation expectations are important tasks when designing monetary policy, because they influence the dynamics of price increases in a number of ways.

A small open macroeconomic model, in which an optimal interest rate rule emerges to drive the inflation behavior, is used to model inflation within an inflation targeting framework. This set up is used to estimate the relationship between commodity prices shocks and the inflation process in a…

Artículo publicado en: American Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol. 94, num. 1, pp. 153–173, 2012.

We use a dynamic factor model proposed by Stock and Watson [1998, 1999, 2002a,b] to forecast Colombian inflation. The model includes 92 monthly series observed over the period 1999:01-2008:06. The results show that for short-run horizons, factor model forecasts significantly outperformed the…

An application of Bayesian Model Averaging, BMA, is implemented to construct combined forecasts for the colombian inflation for the short and medium run. A model selection algorithm is applied over a set of linear models with a large dataset of potencial predictors using marginal as well as…

Three methodologies to estimate the natural interest rate, NIR, are implemented for the Colombian economy. Two methods are statistical filters and the third involves some economic theory. The first method is based on unobserved components decomposition of the real interest rate and explores the…