Statistical Annex - Governor´s Report. Published on October 9th, 2017

 

 

This is the Statistical Annex of a new publication by the Governor of the Central Bank of Colombia. It is addressed to citizens, analysts, and domestic and foreign investors interested in learning about the most recent events in the Colombian economy, and their implications for monetary policy decision-making. The Statistical Annex will be updated on a monthly basis.

 

  
 

MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES

 MONETARY AND FINANCIAL SECTOR EXTERNAL SECTOR  


 

 
 MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES
 
    Annual growth rate (%)
2015 2016    Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017
GDP 3.1 2.0   2.7 2.5 1.2  1.3
Total Consumption 3.6 2.0   3.1 2.3 1.7  2.1
Gross Investment 1.2 -4.5   -3.8 -4.7 0.0  1.3
Manufacturing 1.7 3.0   4.3 5.5 0.3  -3.3
Total goods exports (FOB) -34.5 -12.6   -31.3 -19.1 32.4  10.6
Total goods imports (FOB) -15.5 -17.0   -25.1  -16.2 7.0  5.1
  % of GDP 
Trade Balance (FOB) -4.7 -3.5   -5.0 -2,8 -2.8 -2.6
Current Account -6.4 -4.4   -5.6  -3,8 -4.7  -3.5

Source: DANE, Banco de la República.

 

 


 MONETARY AND FINANCIAL SECTOR
 
MONETARY AGGREGATES     Billions of pesos     Annual Variation (%)
 May 2017 June 2017 July 2017 May 2017 / May 2016 June 2017 / June 2016 July 2017 / July 2016
Monetary Base 76,472 78,098 78,052 -2.58 3.87 1.79
M1  91,224  93,055 94,467 0.16 0.98 1.72
M2 410,755 415,076 418,156 5.73  5.40  5.63
M3 446,002 452,547 455,912 5.73 6.06 6.03

 

 CREDIT   Billions of pesos   Annual Variation (%)
ADJUSTED NET DEBT PORTFOLIO  May 2017 June 2017 July 2017    May 2017 / May 2016  June 2017 / June 2016 July 2017 / July 2016
Legal Currency 370,587 373,986 374,269   6.60 6.46 5.90
Foreign Currency 21,253 22,307 21,885   -9.16  1.86 -5.48
Total 391,840 396,293 396,154   5.61 6.19 5.20

 

INTEREST RATES     Percentage
February 2017 March 2017  April 2017  May 2017 June 2017 July 2017
Intervention Rate 1/ 7.25 7.00 6.50 6.25 5.75 5.50
IBR to one day 7.47 7.19 6.99 6.48 6.25 5.49
Interbank Rate (TIB)  7.48 7.19 6.99 6.48 6.26 5.49
DEPOSIT RATES February 2017  March 2017  April 2017  May 2017 June 2017 July 2017
DTF  6.78 6.65 6.53 6.17 5.96 5.65
Fixed-term Deposit Certificate to 90 days  6.75 6.22 6.28 5.77 5.84 5.35
ACTIVE RATES  February 2017  March 2017  April 2017  May 2017 June 2017 July 2017
Banco de la República’s Active Rate 2/  14.87 15.13 14.47 14.02 13.50 13.58
Total placements 14.82 15.07 14.41 13.94 13.43 13.52
Consumption Credit 20.03  19.78  19.87 19.78  19.47 19.39
Ordinary Credit  13.79 13.84 13.71 13.37 12.89 12.64
Preferential Credit 11.37 11.22 10.65 10.09 9.75 9.47
Treasury Credit 12.03 11.96 11.26 10.68 10.57 10.26
Micro-credit (without Leasing) 37.72 36.77 36.84 36.76 36.59 36.94
Construction 3/ 11.43 11.64 11.27 10.86 10.85 10.83
Housing Acquisition 3/ 12.56 12.42 12.38 12.36 12.02 11.57

 

CPI INFLATION     Percentage
February 2017  March 2017  April 2017  May 2017 June 2017 July 2017
Total 5.18 4.69 4.66 4.37 3.99 3.40
Food 5.21 3.65 2.49 2.09 1.37 0.20
Tradables 5.75 5.59 5.35 4.88 4.41 4.09
Non-tradables (excluding food and regulated items) 5.06 5.33 5.22 5.25 5.21 5.20
Regulated 4.55 4.05 6.75 6.24 6.01 5.03
CORE INFLATION INDICATORS   February 2017  March 2017 April 2017  May 2017 June 2017 July 2017
Excluding food 5.17 5.13 5.60 5.35 5.12 4.79
Excluding food and regulated items 5.35 5.44 5.28 5.09 4.87 4.72
Excluding primary food, public utilities, and fuel 5.74 5.61 5.37 5.29 5.07 4.88
CPI - Core 20 6.03 6.01 5.84 5.59 5.31 5.22

 

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS   Percentage
 MONTHLY SURVEY OF EXPECTATIONS TO ANALYSTS  February 2017 March 2017 April 2017 May 2017 June 2017 July 2017
To December 2017  4.61 4.49 4.39 4.45 4.37 4.28
To December 2018  3.68 3.60 3.50 3.57 3.54 3.52
FORWARD BREAK-EVEN INFLATION (FBEI)  February 2017 March 2017 April 2017 May 2017 June 2017 July 2017
For 2017  5.27 5.24 5.01 5.25 5.03 4.88
For 2018 3.32 3.28 3.13 3.38 3.25 3.27

 

 
 EXTERNAL SECTOR
NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE     Pesos per US dollar
February 2017  March 2017  April 2017  May 2017 June 2017 July 2017
Average 2,882 2,943 2,874 2,924 2,958 3,037
End of: 2,896 2,880 2,948 2,920 3,038 2,995
REAL EXCHANGE RATE INDEX   February 2017 March 2017 April 2017 May 2017 June 2017 July 2017
Non-Traditional RER index (CPI) 121.44 124.42 122.00 124.42 125.56 130.18
Non-Traditional RER index (PPI) 119.98 122.28 120.62 122.65 124.09 127.60

  

NET DIRECT INVESTMENT 4/     Millions of US dollars
2015 2016    Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017
Foreign Direct Investment in Colombia 11,732 13,687   4,703 3,715 2,515 2,625
Colombian Investment Abroad 4,218 4,516   969 897 716 1,275

 

NET INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (NIR) Millions of US dollars
February 2017 March 2017  April 2017  May 2017 June 2017 July 2017
46,986 46,932 46,936 47,153 47,234 47,531

 

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES INDICATORS 5/    February 2017 March 2017   April 2017  May 2017  June 2017 July 2017
NIR/M3 30.52  30.33  30.73 30.88 31.71 31.23 
  2015 2016   Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017
NIR/GDP 16.04 16.51   16.90 17.27 15.89 15.66
NIR/(Current account deficit + current year debt amortization) 6/ 1.10 1.36   1.20 1.24 1.25 1.14

Source: Banco de la República.

NOTES:

1/ This is Banco de la República’s benchmark intervention rate according to the decision reached by the Board of Directors in said month, enforceable since the first working day after that session.

2/ Calculated as the weighted average value per amount for consumption, credit, preferential, ordinary, and treasury rates. Due to the high rotation of treasury credit, its weight was determined as the fifth part of its weekly disbursement.

3/ This corresponds to non-VIS weighted housing rates in UVR and pesos.

4/ According to the information from the balance of payments.

5/ The indicators at the closing of each quarter are calculated based on the data from the last four quarters.

6/ This includes long-term amortizations and the balance of the short-term debt from a year before.