Statistical Annex - Governor´s Report. Published on October 5th, 2018

 


This is the Statistical Annex of a new publication by the Governor of the Central Bank of Colombia. It is addressed to citizens, analysts, and domestic and foreign investors interested in learning about the most recent events in the Colombian economy, and their implications for monetary policy decision-making.

  
 

 

 


 

 
 MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES
 
    Annual growth rate (%) (Seasonally adjusted and corrected for calendar effects)
2016 2017    Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018
GDP 1.96 1.79    1.44 2.23 1.84 1.64 2.59 2.46
Total Consumption 1.45 2.25    1.83 2.31 2.64 2.21 2.91 3.17
Gross Investment 0.27 0.59    -2.63 -1.19 3.72 2.76 -3.19 0.55
Manufacturing 2.78 -1.97    -0.96 -2.70 -1.51 -2.70 0.48 1.70
  % of GDP
Trade Balance (FOB) -3.23 -1.48    -2.30 -1.99  -1.41 -0.38 -1.19 -1.35
Current Account -4.25 -3.37   -4.74 -3.26 -3.66 -2.03 -3.47 -3.77

Source: DANE, Banco de la República.

 

 


 MONETARY AND FINANCIAL SECTOR
 
MONETARY AGGREGATES     Billions of pesos   Annual Variation (%)
June
2018		 July
2018		 August
2018		   June
2018		 July
2018		 August
2018
Monetary Base 83,076 82,569 85,285   6.4 5.8 8.3
M1  98,841 101,096 100,564   6.2 7.0 7.4
M2 435,436 439,512 441,587   4.9 5.1 6.0
M3 475,432 480,067 480,740   5.1 5.3 6.1
 CREDIT ADJUSTED NET DEBT PORTFOLIO              
Legal Currency 394,552 394,560 393,837    5.5 5.4 5.1
Foreign Currency 17,761 17,540 18,933   -20.4 -19.9 -10.6
Total 412,313 412,100 412,769   4.0  4.0 4.3

  

INTEREST RATES     Percentage
March
2018		 April
2018		 May
2018		 June
2018		 July
2018		 August
2018
Intervention Rate 1/ 4.50 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25
IBR to one day 4.43 4.26 4.26 4.25 4.25 4.25
Interbank Rate (TIB) 4.43 4.26 4.26 4.26 4.25 4.25
DEPOSIT RATES            
DTF  5.01 4.90 4.70 4.60 4.57 4.53
Fixed-term Deposit Certificate to 90 days 5.04 4.85 4.63 4.49 4.60 4.48
ACTIVE RATES            
Banco de la República’s Active Rate 2/  11.72 12.21 12.37 12.35 12.33 12.49
Total placements 11.66 12.13 12.31 12.24 12.28 12.44
Consumption Credit 18.33 18.16 17.77 17.89 18.41 18.00
Ordinary Credit 11.14 11.17 11.18 10.80 10.97 10.70
Preferential Credit 7.72 8.02 7.82 7.96 7.87 7.57
Treasury Credit 8.44 8.02 8.50 7.74 9.22 8.87
Micro-credit (without Leasing) 36.86 36.97 36.62 36.76 37.04 36.49
Construction 3/ 9.91 9.81 9.62 9.50 9.35 9.21
Housing Acquisition 3/ 10.77 10.66 10.61 10.58 10.57 10.50

 

CPI INFLATION     Percentage
March
2018		 April
2018		 May
2018		 June
2018		 July
2018		 August
2018
Total 3.14 3.13 3.16 3,20 3,12 3,10
Food 0.98 1.52 1.50 1,74 1,23 1,34
Tradables 6.01 5.65 5.79 5.82 6,60 6,36
Non-tradables (excluding food and regulated items) 1.80 1.51 1.58 1.83 1,57 1,67
Regulated 4.76 4.59 4.57 4.27 4,31 4,16

             
CORE INFLATION INDICATORS Excluding food 4.05 3.80 3.85 3.81 3.91 3.83
Excluding food and regulated items 3.49 3.27 3.29 3.23 3.14 3.10
Excluding primary food, public utilities, and fuel 2.99 2.77 2.80 2.71 2.72 2.76
CPI - Core 20 4.04 3.72 3.79 3.58 3.61 3.54

             

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

 MONTHLY SURVEY OF EXPECTATIONS TO ANALYSTS            
To December 2018 3.35 3.27 3.33 3.36 3.37 3.20
To December 2019 3.28 3.28 3.27 3.30 3.33 3.32
FORWARD BREAK-EVEN INFLATION (FBEI)             
For 2018 4.17 3.82 4.17 4.18 4.01 3.59
For 2019 3.26 3.13 3.31 3.33 3.41 3.25

 

 
 EXTERNAL SECTOR
TOTAL EXPORTS
  March
2018		 April
2018		 May
2018		 June
2018		 July
2018		 August
2018
FOB Value (millions of dollars)  3,366 3,784 3,681 3,335 3,604 n.a.
Annual Variation (%) 2.09 40.95 5.01 16.05 16.15 n.a.

             
TOTAL IMPORTS
 FOB Value (millions of dollars) 3,728 4,042 4,319 4,050 4,162 n.a.
Annual Variation (%) -5.27 5.08 20.94 12.19 16.09 n.a.

             
NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE (Pesos per US dollar) Average 2,852 2,766 2,863 2,893 2,886 2,960
End of: 2,780 2,806 2,879 2,931 2,876 3,027

             
REAL EXCHANGE RATE INDEX Non-Traditional RER index (CPI) 121.0 116.8 118.2 118.2  117.9 116.6
Non-Traditional RER index (PPI) 122.6 119.1 120.3 120.6 120.1 119.0

             
NET INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (NIR) Milllions off US dollars 47,608 47,504 47,603 47,491 47,518 47,537

 

     March
2018		 April
2018		 May
2018		 June
2018		 July
2018		 August
2018
NIR/M3 27.9 28.3
29.1 29.3 28.5 29.9

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES INDICATORS 5/

   2016 2017   Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017   Q1 2018 Q2 2018
NIR/GDP 16.5 15.1   15.8 15.6 15.4 15.5    15.5 15.4
NIR/(Current account deficit + current year debt amortization) 6/ 1.3 1.2   1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2    1.2 1.2

 

NET DIRECT INVESTMENT 4/     Millions of dollars
2016 2017
  Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017   Q1 2018 Q2 2018
Foreign Direct Investment in Colombia  13,850 14,013   2,513 2,526 4,992 3,982   2,135 3,662
Colombian Investment Abroad 4,517 3,690   716 1,275 845 854   1,071 448

Source: Banco de la República.

NOTES:

1/ This is Banco de la República’s benchmark intervention rate according to the decision reached by the Board of Directors in said month, enforceable since the first working day after that session.
2/ Calculated as the weighted average value per amount for consumption, credit, preferential, ordinary, and treasury rates. Due to the high rotation of treasury credit, its weight was determined as the fifth part of its weekly disbursement.
3/ This corresponds to non-VIS weighted housing rates in UVR and pesos.
4/ According to the information from the balance of payments.
5/ The indicators at the closing of each quarter are calculated based on the data from the last four quarters.
6/ This includes long-term amortizations and the balance of the short-term debt from a year before.