Current Account Sustainability in Latin America Considering Nonlinearities
We test current account sustainability based on the framework developed by Hakkio and Rush  and Husted  using a two-regime threshold vector error correction model. This methodology allows us to characterize short-run nonlinearities in the current account. We estimate the model for four Latin American economies: Chile, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. We find a long-run relationship between the current account components, which implies strong sustainability for Chile and Mexico and weak sustainability for Colombia and Brazil. For the first two countries, the predominant regime is associated with a current account surplus. In contrast, for Colombia and Brazil, the prevailing regime corresponds to a situation in which there is a long- run deficit. In general, the impulse response analysis shows that expenditure and income shocks have positive and significant responses in the predominant regime for both series.
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This document has been translated into English for informational purposes. Upon any query regarding its interpretation or enforceability, the Spanish version shall be deemed official, and will prevail over the English version.
Este documento ha sido traducido al inglés para fines informativos. En caso de cualquier duda sobre su interpretación y aplicación, se entenderá que la versión en español es la versión oficial y prevalecerá sobre aquella escrita en inglés.
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